MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06fa72a2cb88b1dfeb128c10d8a95f83ac31b71c9a0513cca16017dd1c58fea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 2,038$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,496$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,203$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 540.24$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.89 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 515.45$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 234.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 223.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 214.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 213.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 189.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 181$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 127.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 98.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 86.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 59.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 55.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 50.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 32.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.