MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe443ba611f934bf009b655f0ab68dab99ab38bdc7e569810410e0564f7fbbd44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 5,049$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 5,023$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 52c | 2,969$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 2,877$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 48c | 1,950$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,828$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 1,627$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 1,589$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.38 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 47c | 1,354$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.9 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b757backed Under | 49c | 1,005$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over | 52c | 736.2$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 700.64$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.13 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…dafdbacked Over | 32c | 625.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 48c | 622.92$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.92 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 20c | 567.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Over | 52c | 394.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 25c | 376.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 358.31$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 291$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 48c | 242.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 52c | 232.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 201.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 195.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 49c | 179.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 26c | 177.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 56c | 160.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 156.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 147.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 133.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 133.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 48c | 111.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Over | 52c | 90.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 78c | 88.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 48c | 80.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 19c | 77.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 51c | 72.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 61.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 54.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 53.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 49c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 52c | 38.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 44c | 32.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 79c | 31.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…0d86backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.