Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf68efb773b04ace60b423c078d9eda4f3acefa9f33322cf5c13f3c6c0ae534b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Arsenal FC, Newcastle United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle United FC | 73c | 4,182$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.8 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Arsenal FC | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 36c | 2,320$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Newcastle United FC | 63c | 2,136$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.18 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arsenal FC | 34c | 1,614$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.74 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…c1cfbacked Newcastle United FC | 66c | 1,484$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Arsenal FC | 24c | 799.06$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 379.48$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Arsenal FC | 30c | 356.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 318.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 276.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Newcastle United FC | 75c | 257.45$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…8837backed Newcastle United FC | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb77…9b07backed Arsenal FC | 23c | 195.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…8f57backed Newcastle United FC | 80c | 151.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Arsenal FC | 24c | 119.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…8e56backed Arsenal FC | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…7ff6backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d323backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Newcastle United FC | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Newcastle United FC | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Newcastle United FC | 72c | 46.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Newcastle United FC | 80c | 43.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…318bbacked Newcastle United FC | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Newcastle United FC | 76c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Newcastle United FC | 77c | 28.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Newcastle United FC | 76c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Newcastle United FC | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…30a1backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Newcastle United FC | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…fe20backed Newcastle United FC | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Newcastle United FC | 80c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.