TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc482…b505backed Under11c6,306$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,612.187342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over32c6,273$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.474,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3b…d591backed Over41c5,688$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under27c5,242$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,826.3576842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under20c3,901$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.382,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under33c3,468$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.5774644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over67c2,934$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.366,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over41c2,009$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.723545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Over1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15565.4%3 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+150.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Over43c1,380$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.514540%18 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…d4bfbacked Over80c1,235$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9883764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb343…a0a1backed Under8c1,176$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,145%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf053…3939backed Under78c1,156$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.331566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Over80c1,152$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.954470.5%31 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under78c1,078$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4318842.6%80 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over48c847.11$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.631,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Under11c788.8$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under6c715.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.4324052.9%127 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over43c673.92$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.746446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf541…ac67backed Over80c617.5$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick75cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Over51c556.16$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.412948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over71c545$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.130645.8%140 W · 166 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under6c532.2$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.2721254.2%115 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under6c494.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.0472142.7%308 W · 413 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Under14c483.1$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.887652.6%40 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under19c452.4$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.9933551.3%172 W · 163 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under6c440.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.3228859.7%172 W · 116 L+19.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under20c415.94$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0959247.6%282 W · 310 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ac…7409backed Over73c412.6$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.664768.1%32 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f6…da6bbacked Over76c385.06$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc621…7c5cbacked Under48c364.63$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9e…970abacked Under68c360.57$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Over40c343.59$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.449345.2%42 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec5a…cd56backed Under60c324.15$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over42c316.81$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.29724.7%24 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under20c301.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3280953.6%434 W · 375 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over32c296.49$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.155251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Over31c283$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.484040%16 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over80c280$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22441850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…4697backed Under35c274.66$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.563237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under20c272.15$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.721,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ec…0923backed Under7c269.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.893756.8%21 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc329…0b75backed Over80c263.18$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.541145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under6c258.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.1810049%49 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over42c229.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5228633.9%97 W · 189 L+19.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over80c228.23$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.584238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6705…8184backed Under6c224.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.424850%24 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a0…79ddbacked Over80c221.58$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.27955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over30c197.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3113721.2%29 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over40c181.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5216024.4%39 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cad…0758backed Over62c172.03$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.662142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over58c168.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.487245.8%33 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed9…b344backed Under29c162.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over13c140.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.877143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Under51c140.08$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.052556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad7c…6244backed Over37c135.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3092…c9a8backed Under10c127.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over66c124.9$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8928456.7%161 W · 123 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac4…e43abacked Over80c123.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.81250%6 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd442…f946backed Over80c123.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over80c123.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.813550.4%68 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…b9debacked Over80c123.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+83.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over69c113.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1725256%141 W · 111 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over51c109.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6143241.9%181 W · 251 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a6…6ea4backed Over45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.358949.4%44 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Over26c106.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4712543.2%54 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over26c106.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.477635.5%27 W · 49 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under20c100.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7469851.1%357 W · 341 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under54c97.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.733551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Over15c85.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over77c80.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.213842.1%16 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f61…f56fbacked Over72c78.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Over80c76.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2615553.5%83 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae4…58b1backed Over64c76.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee5b…dac8backed Over21c74.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Under22c74.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.053540%14 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under79c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6541343.3%179 W · 234 L-2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Under38c62.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.85651.8%29 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Under57c58.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.285558.2%32 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Under21c58.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8717153.8%92 W · 79 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over71c55.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.36553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over51c54.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.741260.2%248 W · 164 L+22.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under28c49.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.583336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27d…6dfcbacked Over48c48.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.253663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf238…c3babacked Over62c47.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x399c…6191backed Over62c47.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.322147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e4…4d8cbacked Under76c46.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.26068.3%41 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under65c46.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.111,16357.4%667 W · 496 L+40.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…bb76backed Over44c45.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.292330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3080…f041backed Over55c45.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.011040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x610d…6c37backed Over80c45.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.192157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb78c…22d1backed Over80c44.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under78c42.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3496645.4%439 W · 527 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over52c40.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3810361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Under74c40.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.482050%10 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Under73c40.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.985662.5%35 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccee…3eedbacked Over48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over66c37.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d13…b939backed Over80c37.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.641855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick71cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.