TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$279,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f28…266ebacked Over57c119,108$67,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,758.3955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under43c71,814$30,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,933.8913748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under53c51,040$27,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,988.825552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Under43c37,948$16,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,630.6411149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Over47c31,349$14,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,781.874540%18 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f6…8cecbacked Over56c18,992$10,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,635.67560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c9,321$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,640.936,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under44c5,363$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,012.442,53047.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L+43.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under44c4,015$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.6210765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c3,923$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.961,17950%590 W · 589 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under44c3,866$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.7418362.3%114 W · 69 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ae4…0ddebacked Over77c3,845$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x820a…ca12backed Under53c3,680$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over57c3,464$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.220545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Over60c3,186$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.92948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over39c2,889$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.95527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over48c2,646$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.673545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over45c2,554$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.728851.1%45 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over57c2,393$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.8810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under43c2,330$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.09944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under41c2,318$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.674644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over56c2,200$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.3955351.9%287 W · 266 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under44c2,196$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.964367.4%29 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over18c1,903$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.456317.5%11 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under32c1,830$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.11,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under44c1,734$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.1212949.6%64 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over46c1,733$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.2313353.4%71 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over57c1,709$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.25442.6%23 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under44c1,609$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.8357847.8%276 W · 302 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under43c1,336$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.5127752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over60c1,330$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7984969.4%34 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Under44c1,318$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.982466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over59c1,215$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.0426444.7%118 W · 146 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Under40c1,157$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed Under52c1,056$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over48c1,009$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.420054.5%109 W · 91 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over47c1,008$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.972347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Over47c1,008$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under44c939.74$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.2540655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over44c820.21$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.893852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under44c801.15$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.6429250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b37…17bdbacked Under44c746.76$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.1910125.7%26 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Under44c712.24$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.853351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under53c611.33$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.0175542.3%319 W · 436 L+1.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over57c610.41$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.941741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0176…ff71backed Over41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2464037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under44c585.19$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.3985048.4%411 W · 439 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under43c535$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.958259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under44c483.2$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.5923258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfc…07b0backed Over57c427.81$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick67cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Over48c409.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.674630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0351…ab88backed Over57c398.19$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under38c359.9$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.969742.5%296 W · 401 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under27c343.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.645249.6%224 W · 228 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over29c330.14$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.744645.7%21 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+30.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8f6…da6bbacked Over45c330.14$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Under76c318.36$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.41977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf45…c794backed Under43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1713246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over55c299.97$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9930645.8%140 W · 166 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under46c299.81$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.991,92342.4%815 W · 1,108 L-42.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under44c294.87$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.137830.8%24 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Under41c282.32$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5712652.4%66 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over4c275.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4618842.6%80 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over18c264.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5419244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cad…0758backed Over57c256.37$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.132142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over56c239.79$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2816454.9%90 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under44c236.58$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4975850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over50c235.95$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2561143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over59c230.12$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.771,61534.9%564 W · 1,051 L-28.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under43c224.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0212233.6%41 W · 81 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under44c220.34$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.394854.2%26 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under44c219.63$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.997954.4%43 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.826451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Under42c203.87$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.244841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11413554.8%74 W · 61 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over37c199.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Under44c197.67$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.717048.8%83 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Over55c197.26$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.491127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Under53c197.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.668858%51 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Under43c174.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.43641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Over56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3617755.9%99 W · 78 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3771…5023backed Over57c172.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under41c171.69$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6132951.4%169 W · 160 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4222242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd5…a3a2backed Over57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Over57c167.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.511265.2%73 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51af…8720backed Over47c158.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.511741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Under75c147.75$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.945651.8%29 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee09…1199backed Over57c143.06$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.26358.7%37 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…4697backed Under72c136.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.243237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fc8…6875backed Under33c132.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.863259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+54.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over14c131.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.823336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Under44c125.63$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3514258.5%83 W · 59 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Over48c121.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.137931.6%25 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked Under44c115.64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.764100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+70%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ff…84d1backed Over54c111.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.352548%12 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed Under44c103.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.83327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over47c103$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.37per pick60cpaid-65.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4420336.9%75 W · 128 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked Over34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411433.3%38 W · 76 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.