MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f06969d5346cabeaf6da559d888a0a42680757df4fcd0481c87093ed16e822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Under | 53c | 33,524$17,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,756.35 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 47c | 27,110$12,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,741.51 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 54c | 14,100$7,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,485.91 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Over | 46c | 14,086$6,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,479.5 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 47c | 4,113$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.96 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 47c | 3,002$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.12 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Under | 55c | 2,896$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.42 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Over | 46c | 2,103$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 1,884$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.58 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,750$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.15 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,422$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.44 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 1,415$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.3 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,217$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 45c | 1,083$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.59 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 43c | 946.85$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.13 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 49c | 938.49$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.48 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 54c | 771.47$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.88 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 686.31$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.18 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 55c | 648.96$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.09 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 581.24$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.18 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 53c | 517.12$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.05 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 52c | 342.62$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 45c | 304.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 54c | 235.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 227.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 46c | 226$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…9f09backed Over | 6c | 196.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…7c84backed Over | 8c | 189.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 47c | 176.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 54c | 170.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 130.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 127$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 115.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 47c | 113.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 103.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 93.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 91.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 90.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 54c | 90.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 26c | 82.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 53c | 76.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Over | 54c | 73.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 70c | 70.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 63.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 58.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 49c | 57.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 56.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 40c | 54.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 53.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 46c | 46.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 54c | 45.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 53c | 37.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 53c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 35c | 31.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…5bc6backed Over | 46c | 30.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 29.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 58c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Under | 54c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 54c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 49c | 25.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…dda0backed Under | 51c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Under | 52c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Under | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.