MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bfab5e402ed2b9737a7025235c43e4756648cd330f42c448c48f6285a392065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 6,585$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.09 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 58c | 2,428$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.72 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,293$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.1 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,163$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.9 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 1,078$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.79 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…f814backed Houston Astros | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…83a0backed Houston Astros | 59c | 916.84$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 894.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Houston Astros | 59c | 714.19$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 703.75$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.29 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 684.44$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 680$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 397.76$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Cleveland Guardians | 8c | 245.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 149.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 135.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Houston Astros | 60c | 113.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Houston Astros | 59c | 86.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 84.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 62c | 54.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 49.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 46.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 26.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Houston Astros | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Houston Astros | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Houston Astros | 59c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.