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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,032,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,006,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,032,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2eb1…4ea4backed No58c502,987$289,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213,201.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes42c223,638$94,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,107.181,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…e993backed Yes45c154,423$69,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,458.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes45c85,888$38,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,390.7227138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No69c74,840$51,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,448.532941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes27c74,047$19,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,695.543,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No55c35,352$19,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,908.566755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes36c28,545$10,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,191.2375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes43c22,307$9,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,539.871,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes41c18,888$7,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,744.083063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked No55c17,283$9,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,777.516465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No55c15,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7504540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes6c13,186$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.9343532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes45c11,912$5,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,360.546761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Yes45c11,819$5,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,318.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed No73c11,408$8,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.653056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Yes42c8,879$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed No55c8,535$4,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,840.83836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked No55c8,315$4,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.871250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6006549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes44c7,986$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,494.6233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes34c7,304$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,454.6548141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No55c6,541$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.0869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes39c6,351$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.382,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Yes42c6,227$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,615.491040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7005843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Yes41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes44c5,766$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed No62c4,717$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.0421355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No62c4,716$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.2218644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes44c4,661$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.9934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4815…8ba4backed Yes45c4,271$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…79a5backed Yes23c4,143$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Yes24c4,034$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.191154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Yes23c3,977$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.792646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes7c3,976$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.788932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Yes23c3,907$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.51333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Yes45c3,868$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Yes42c3,640$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.894259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes42c3,515$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.47935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5756744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5746…06cfbacked Yes34c3,111$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.461060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3505944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes44c3,000$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.4829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes3c2,920$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.594916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked No56c2,608$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.466149.2%30 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No58c2,437$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.546058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No55c2,400$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.953554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Yes45c2,365$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.342751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked No63c2,262$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes43c2,214$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.0215747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Yes45c2,184$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.992568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x332a…33babacked Yes45c2,149$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes43c2,118$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.7456951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes16c1,948$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.734436.4%16 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Yes44c1,840$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.811435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked No57c1,709$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.927458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Yes18c1,585$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked No55c1,555$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No55c1,497$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.525168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x318d…74febacked Yes6c1,285$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed No78c1,265$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.339100%9 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No55c1,220$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.8728755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes1c1,205$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.716010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9c…4695backed Yes15c1,196$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes44c1,195$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.5138646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Yes22c1,083$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes39c1,057$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.1540744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes4c1,038$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.886645.5%30 W · 36 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99b5…8d41backed Yes3c1,029$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3317…ab0cbacked No55c1,025$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes26c1,015$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.819354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes15c1,012$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.841631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4506549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4506647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4505349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes43c993.65$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Yes36c980.84$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.914951%25 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Yes42c976.01$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No55c973$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.858158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Yes42c965.2$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.381258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes44c953.81$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.681266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+87.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No55c900$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4055745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes43c896.75$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.648146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No55c884.55$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.058448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes43c874.26$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.6310552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes43c845.16$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.4214652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f26…be98backed Yes19c808.29$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.631931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x598a…1bdfbacked Yes42c804.6$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3606446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3605745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Yes42c758.37$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes5c684.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.79728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa70…5501backed No72c682.56$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.591233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9244…643cbacked Yes15c679.9$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.991010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid+42.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed No55c626.61$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.983132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes44c600.55$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1642046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked No56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2642425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5b…6e33backed Yes44c589.5$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.381154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1670…2277backed Yes18c530.57$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.082138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.