TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3317…ab0c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Lol, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.56
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$132.44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$101.76
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$235.72
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$163.38
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+154.9%+$515.67
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+120.4%+$385.58
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.38
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+65.8%+$141.57
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$269.54
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.32
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$24.51
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.73
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$372.75
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodoresbacked McNeese State Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.45
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Troy Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.42
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$39.14
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$628Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$418.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$241.35
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$79.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$143.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Keninbacked Qinwen Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$844Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$296.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.