TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Suns, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,535,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,818,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,535,781 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,615 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x906f…88b4backed Suns52c175,604$90,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,829.9922453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed 76ers0c162,994$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Suns57c150,038$84,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,095.623257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed 76ers44c103,379$45,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,667.6359347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb4…d892backed Suns52c100,000$52,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,8003234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked 76ers46c100,000$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,999.8854539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed 76ers45c98,570$44,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,465.811,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 76ers51c88,832$45,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,044.81,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed 76ers46c73,071$33,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,403.272,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Suns50c67,582$34,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,5361,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns54c56,613$30,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,146.622,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked 76ers48c56,000$26,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,88014358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked 76ers46c55,000$25,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,100.571,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns55c50,000$27,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,40059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed 76ers46c50,000$23,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,999.9751350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Suns51c49,276$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,276.1276746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers48c49,169$23,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,572.564,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Suns48c48,095$23,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,009.2551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed 76ers0c42,042$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.345837.9%22 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Suns52c40,000$20,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,20040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b3…04e1backed 76ers35c40,000$14,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,065.491050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed 76ers46c40,000$18,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,399.9743148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns54c39,283$21,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,259.22,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Suns53c37,206$19,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,487.0560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Suns54c37,037$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,037.0422458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns54c30,000$16,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,710.8819751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed 76ers46c28,000$12,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,879.9519048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns60c27,019$16,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,799.011,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d89…b02cbacked Suns53c25,991$13,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,215.592560%15 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Suns66c25,186$16,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,665.0737557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed 76ers8c24,830$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.0583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers40c22,789$9,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,100.641,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 76ers6c22,750$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.551,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa59e…2b99backed 76ers30c22,680$6,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,785.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked 76ers1c20,994$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.417211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Suns73c20,709$15,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,611.223747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed 76ers50c20,074$10,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,092.3636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Suns52c20,017$10,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,590.3420551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ac…88c9backed 76ers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed 76ers48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked 76ers47c20,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.8877348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c2…8451backed 76ers40c19,630$7,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,85210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed 76ers2c19,157$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed 76ers45c18,928$8,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,517.5628643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880e…54edbacked Suns54c18,870$10,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,675.617458.1%43 W · 31 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers47c18,181$8,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,600.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Suns50c17,491$8,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,745.5310547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Suns54c17,448$9,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,026.148347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed 76ers3c16,508$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.971,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked 76ers45c16,380$7,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,370.9916039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed 76ers0c15,997$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Suns47c15,155$7,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.2662347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns54c14,467$7,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,661.271,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers48c14,190$6,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,816.323,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a80…141fbacked 76ers36c13,914$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,067.182321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc09…3079backed 76ers36c13,779$4,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,982.586839.7%27 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed 76ers51c13,506$6,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,930.0134654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Suns56c13,048$7,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,731.3456945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns56c12,458$6,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,481.791,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Suns50c11,666$5,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,832.956540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed 76ers45c11,328$5,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,062.3514751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Suns50c11,225$5,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,660.966651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x988f…d197backed 76ers1c11,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked 76ers5c10,984$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.3981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked 76ers51c10,523$5,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.7617348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba31…de52backed 76ers1c10,487$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.96190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Suns51c10,200$5,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00246145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed 76ers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70047751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked 76ers50c9,987$5,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,042.6365144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed 76ers50c9,935$4,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.6825753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed 76ers47c9,900$4,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,643.9561835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed 76ers50c9,871$4,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,984.4448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns67c9,726$6,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.941,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Suns74c9,138$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.399640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked 76ers51c9,003$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,591.481668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns50c8,900$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,472.731,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns53c8,824$4,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.849,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ce…d5f9backed Suns52c8,677$4,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,158.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Suns50c8,246$4,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,155.4527251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed 76ers47c8,085$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers27c8,057$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.488,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed 76ers45c7,803$3,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,511.4128439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Suns56c7,777$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.8824554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Suns52c7,724$4,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,678.0139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Suns58c7,701$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.8512541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8256…3600backed Suns55c7,266$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked Suns50c7,155$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,555.171942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked 76ers51c7,101$3,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,621.4414055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Suns48c7,100$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,69214945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Suns53c7,052$3,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,314.45345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed 76ers0c6,951$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Suns49c6,767$3,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.1713239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed 76ers45c6,493$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.935534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked 76ers49c6,420$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,145.1230947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked 76ers38c6,000$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3031735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns57c5,915$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.841,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Suns48c5,748$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,988.9220349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked 76ers50c5,651$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Suns50c5,394$2,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.322051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed 76ers43c5,300$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.9858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.