Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc71ed1575a99f4cefd12e7b1aaeeaed2952b21f7ddc0de097558399f2993ee9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Over | 68c | 9,806$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,164.32 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 6,298$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 65c | 3,830$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.5 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 3,348$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 32c | 2,759$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.97 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 28c | 2,638$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.21 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 32c | 2,153$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.03 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 1,566$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.6 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 1,470$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.44 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked Under | 7c | 1,349$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…5dedbacked Under | 32c | 1,222$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Over | 68c | 1,198$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…ab0cbacked Under | 32c | 1,156$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 32c | 1,115$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.87 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 33c | 831.8$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.86 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 31c | 727.4$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.47 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 33c | 709.76$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed Over | 68c | 657.02$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 33c | 587.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Under | 12c | 549.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 501.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 31c | 494.14$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 30c | 408.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 32c | 394.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 26c | 391.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 303.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 295.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 67c | 273.81$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 69c | 252.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 31c | 239.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…e34ebacked Over | 67c | 219.45$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Over | 68c | 219.01$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 70c | 196.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 189.17$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Over | 70c | 187.29$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Under | 26c | 170.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 31c | 167.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Under | 31c | 165.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 68c | 157.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…4e46backed Over | 68c | 142.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Over | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 74c | 114.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 33c | 106.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 72c | 95.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 69c | 83.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 32c | 69.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 32c | 67.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8c…1991backed Over | 72c | 59.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Over | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Under | 32c | 55.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…ba11backed Over | 72c | 54.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 72c | 54.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 29c | 50.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 29c | 39.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa185…497abacked Over | 69c | 35.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Over | 68c | 35.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 77c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Over | 72c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…f75ebacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 73c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 76c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.