Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d9f2f37dccc723f7f91ce5aedfb10fd14c8605e9b9245d8945275fcc7be920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof 1. FSV Mainz 05, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 7c | 3,159$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6c | 2,426$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 11c | 1,432$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…8e4dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 10c | 979.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b3…c9f6backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2c | 840$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…871dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2c | 840$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…5c3dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2c | 840$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…6ce0backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2c | 840$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 45c | 324.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…aa0dbacked FC Bayern München | 61c | 321.75$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 47c | 265.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked FC Bayern München | 54c | 252.57$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…7a04backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 10c | 241.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed FC Bayern München | 58c | 198.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 45c | 197.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed FC Bayern München | 72c | 148.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…6834backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9c | 142.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 17c | 140.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked FC Bayern München | 53c | 124.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 18c | 100.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 37c | 93.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 28c | 86.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x589d…b958backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 23c | 75.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 22c | 71.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked FC Bayern München | 57c | 60.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 28c | 55.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…4e86backed FC Bayern München | 57c | 54.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 43c | 54.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed FC Bayern München | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked FC Bayern München | 54c | 29.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed FC Bayern München | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.