TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6204…0b06backed Over63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,700933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+154.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under37c9,831$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.822,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under37c4,331$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.663,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Under69c2,833$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.14850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over52c2,702$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under44c1,971$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.0964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under28c1,936$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.381662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc3…0b17backed Over64c1,390$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under55c1,233$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over72c1,200$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33644655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over45c1,110$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.52646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over31c1,006$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.9169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Over51c994.52$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.314445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…a96fbacked Under64c978.4$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over30c829.41$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Under30c777.1$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.645024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over54c626.89$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2899532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over53c598.13$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4433938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9762…73fbbacked Over65c534.68$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Over32c445.22$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+116.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over75c400.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.116366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Under35c395.38$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.382642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over31c392.5$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under67c333.43$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.44240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over66c329.47$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0116464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under13c320.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62532%8 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Under40c289.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over71c264.7$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7616056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a05…754abacked Over64c243.35$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.64447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Under6c235.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.15160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over30c232.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.8429855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Over70c200.75$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.751861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933a…d3c1backed Over25c199.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+399.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa790…b73cbacked Over61c196.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over32c191.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4517055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over54c165.17$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Over64c152.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.042286.4%19 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under56c138.26$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4349143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under35c137.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.051942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed Under75c131.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc454…8c31backed Under20c122.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8662…958dbacked Under69c114.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over74c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.65345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Under13c109.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over68c107.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.264161%25 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Over30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over45c99.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.672665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe66e…96e8backed Under70c98.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb795…3306backed Under37c96.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…0b46backed Under52c93.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over61c80.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2253140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x055a…12ddbacked Over61c79.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+122.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under62c78.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.861844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under54c71.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9310549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over73c66.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.766665.2%43 W · 23 L+12.5wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+49.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over63c63.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.465276.9%40 W · 12 L+13.0wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+72%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over69c61.36$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0212460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2831…e84dbacked Over79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Over65c59.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over64c54.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.454269%29 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Under62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over49c48.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.724841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea51…83a0backed Over61c48.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.731968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccfa…6ee7backed Over29c47.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.991040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Under50c45.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.622045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over31c44.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7726445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over31c43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.671,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Under43c42.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.183366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bfe…9408backed Under52c41.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under40c40.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.469265.2%60 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under48c40.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5522245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over48c40.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.993571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over46c37.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under69c37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.533259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827f…8027backed Under57c36.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Under33c34.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over56c32.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.352040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacb…03b7backed Under37c32.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over37c30.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1739558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under35c29.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4820645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba89…0fefbacked Under69c29.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Over66c29.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.092948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0462…aa61backed Under67c29.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Over39c28.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.631752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under49c26.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.838844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1034655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1dd…c4c9backed Over70c24.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0a…8b2fbacked Under64c21.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Over72c20.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642152.4%11 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…7f72backed Under69c19.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under70c18.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2616846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Under70c16.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Under71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651650%8 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.