TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1. FSV Mainz 05of FC Bayern München, 1. FSV Mainz 05
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Bayern München6c21,340$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.6264043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed FC Bayern München30c7,700$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.586762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FSV Mainz 0572c4,055$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.113,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0564c2,926$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.2516647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed FC Bayern München36c1,757$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.463836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0565c1,545$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.291,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München15c1,464$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked FC Bayern München31c999.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c979$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.656549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed FC Bayern München35c948.37$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.9314447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed FC Bayern München26c729.21$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0568c716.3$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.754153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0564c699.99$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2523461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FC Bayern München32c499.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed FC Bayern München20c499.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed 1. FSV Mainz 0563c493.79$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.743532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c484.5$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5720845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed FC Bayern München41c474.56$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed FC Bayern München4c461.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1753140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc793…f66fbacked FC Bayern München33c446.77$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed 1. FSV Mainz 0559c433.59$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.775870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed 1. FSV Mainz 0567c392.55$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.544641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c376.54$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7915540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed FC Bayern München35c339.67$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c338.19$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.626445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb723…d9dcbacked FC Bayern München30c333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed FC Bayern München36c332.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.215246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed FC Bayern München6c331.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.871643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c324.29$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.56549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c319.72$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4881732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8582…959fbacked FC Bayern München32c299.75$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FC Bayern München28c292.55$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.765024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5574…47abbacked FC Bayern München36c267.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München33c261.76$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.384452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked FC Bayern München38c253.69$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.281553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed FC Bayern München33c239.95$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked 1. FSV Mainz 0562c237.56$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c233$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.557443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x806a…62d7backed FC Bayern München37c200.24$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.091855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0580c180.56$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.118347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9738…3b75backed FC Bayern München36c172.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed FC Bayern München35c154.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1220545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe720…0f1cbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0565c153.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.82176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed 1. FSV Mainz 0567c150.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.83557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96f…0cd0backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c150.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.722352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6a…8bbcbacked FC Bayern München33c144.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.752231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed 1. FSV Mainz 0569c142.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.091361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München19c135.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.328822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked FC Bayern München33c133.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…958dbacked FC Bayern München36c133.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.083145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0568c119.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.428755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FC Bayern München18c114.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3520645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed 1. FSV Mainz 0571c110.68$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.022450%12 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed FC Bayern München39c103.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked FC Bayern München35c99.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.995839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed FC Bayern München14c96.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.462642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked FC Bayern München20c93.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.854112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed FC Bayern München16c92.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.334645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed FC Bayern München14c86.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.935356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed FC Bayern München17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7514642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3711…7339backed FC Bayern München32c74.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked 1. FSV Mainz 0565c70.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6714652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed FC Bayern München38c63.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.071369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+83.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedf7…b092backed FC Bayern München38c62.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4178…defabacked 1. FSV Mainz 0565c60.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+93.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd53c…5194backed FC Bayern München17c59.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked FC Bayern München36c59.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4817852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7650…5099backed FC Bayern München36c53.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbc…4572backed FC Bayern München36c53.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fb…e34ebacked FC Bayern München37c52.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.242268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec6d…0db2backed FC Bayern München38c51.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed 1. FSV Mainz 0562c49.87$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.771250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed 1. FSV Mainz 0567c45.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9331…84acbacked FC Bayern München36c45.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed 1. FSV Mainz 0572c42.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.029265.2%60 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb61…25e3backed FC Bayern München34c42.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed 1. FSV Mainz 0578c39.76$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.551353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 1. FSV Mainz 0580c36.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed 1. FSV Mainz 0564c33.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.091770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed FC Bayern München36c30.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd12e…cf7cbacked FC Bayern München35c30.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed FC Bayern München36c29.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5718554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked 1. FSV Mainz 0564c26.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.581838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked 1. FSV Mainz 0566c26.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9510657.5%61 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d8…7536backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c24.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed 1. FSV Mainz 0565c23.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.253461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed 1. FSV Mainz 0580c21.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.358844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 1. FSV Mainz 0580c16.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2148658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed 1. FSV Mainz 0580c14.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0317456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.