Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9dd4546f296639e5ab0d2a371de25ce1e26ba2e6ce59df8b217ebf5c8e34057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c8…68f0backed Yes | 66c | 6,465$4,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…ce9bbacked No | 19c | 2,714$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 80c | 1,975$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.95 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 23c | 1,902$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece6…c4bfbacked Yes | 67c | 1,794$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 31c | 1,397$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.09 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,351$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.84 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2bd0backed No | 33c | 1,062$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…2e36backed Yes | 76c | 660$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 550.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 32c | 519.63$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 65c | 453.71$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 37c | 385.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…523bbacked Yes | 63c | 356.9$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 34c | 356.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 69c | 355.58$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked No | 24c | 347.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes | 75c | 332.08$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 33c | 329.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked No | 25c | 321.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed No | 38c | 300.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 32c | 287.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Yes | 68c | 260$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 73c | 258.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed No | 36c | 256.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 67c | 242.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 36c | 218.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 34c | 166.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…79ddbacked Yes | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 33c | 137.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…f5e9backed No | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 67c | 131.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 76c | 118.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 32c | 116.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 69c | 103$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ae…c9eebacked Yes | 66c | 99.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 65c | 75.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…4e46backed Yes | 64c | 71.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed No | 32c | 62.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed No | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Yes | 69c | 59.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 33c | 52.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…c6cebacked Yes | 80c | 46.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 46.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…e944backed Yes | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Yes | 77c | 42.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 67c | 41.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed No | 34c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Yes | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Yes | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 70c | 26.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Yes | 69c | 24.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 77c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e083backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 80c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…519ebacked Yes | 66c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.