TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$502,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$554,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers52c49,396$25,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,487.754,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Trail Blazers51c47,248$23,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,974.4514842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Spurs51c22,699$11,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,042.1416547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Spurs49c19,784$9,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,089.673540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Trail Blazers50c19,130$9,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5656152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Spurs52c18,939$9,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,121.478452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs49c16,853$8,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,533.913,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Trail Blazers60c13,539$8,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,131.4393148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs51c13,072$6,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,405.261,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Trail Blazers48c13,000$6,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,29089444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Spurs49c12,648$6,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,450.5269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Spurs23c11,816$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,117.3922036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Trail Blazers27c10,773$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.2926337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09a…a371backed Trail Blazers49c10,765$5,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,274.851457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers49c10,704$5,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,195.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Spurs47c10,264$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,422.2911249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162b…3d49backed Trail Blazers51c10,010$5,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,124.575947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Spurs50c9,700$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8502941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Spurs47c9,682$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,131.4637539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Spurs50c9,510$4,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,792.6436359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Spurs72c8,169$5,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.2156646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs47c8,098$3,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,307.461,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Spurs47c6,950$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,683.7318448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Spurs45c6,067$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,339.2822039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Spurs49c6,005$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.3917249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs42c5,705$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,319.768,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Trail Blazers50c5,535$2,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.2914441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7cc…791fbacked Trail Blazers49c5,432$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Spurs49c5,428$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.110256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers50c5,312$2,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.144,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Spurs50c4,860$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.851,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Spurs48c4,843$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,531.2136954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Spurs54c4,676$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.8310949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Spurs49c4,639$2,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.0124942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers48c4,500$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.331,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8545…23bebacked Spurs50c4,276$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Spurs52c3,745$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.511,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Spurs49c3,500$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,78511864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers51c3,494$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.5582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Trail Blazers50c3,476$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.6444740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spurs28c3,291$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.8617553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…a548backed Spurs59c3,274$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Trail Blazers50c3,185$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.3464651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Spurs51c3,102$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.0430452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers49c2,953$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.672,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Spurs80c2,707$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.46341.3%26 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Spurs70c2,645$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd25…7d10backed Spurs53c2,536$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.237642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Trail Blazers51c2,449$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.221,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Trail Blazers27c2,441$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.354949%24 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Trail Blazers48c2,359$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.5525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Trail Blazers49c2,326$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.0337842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Spurs47c2,281$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.4115246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Trail Blazers48c2,146$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.916743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…441dbacked Trail Blazers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Trail Blazers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Spurs46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Spurs47c1,918$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.365945.8%27 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x672d…164abacked Spurs75c1,889$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.491850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Spurs52c1,868$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.4921152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Trail Blazers54c1,799$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.4317247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Spurs68c1,764$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.232,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Trail Blazers48c1,708$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.6330448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Spurs46c1,653$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.6230446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x106d…ccefbacked Trail Blazers49c1,559$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.892119%4 W · 17 L-6.1wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-54.4%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd6f6…6d85backed Spurs47c1,545$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.8515252%79 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Trail Blazers46c1,500$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3464…8112backed Spurs50c1,497$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Spurs50c1,471$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.2659140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc9…c790backed Trail Blazers47c1,468$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.114731.3%46 W · 101 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Trail Blazers53c1,450$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.57156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Spurs52c1,401$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.375354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Spurs47c1,343$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.7318444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Trail Blazers42c1,341$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.0817052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3317…ab0cbacked Spurs47c1,332$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers46c1,321$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.522,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Spurs47c1,313$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.836333.3%21 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs56c1,266$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.8973649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Trail Blazers42c1,258$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.243,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Spurs48c1,225$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6371926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Trail Blazers49c1,187$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.6427746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Spurs53c1,100$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0711743.6%51 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Spurs47c1,095$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.452,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Trail Blazers49c1,088$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.1712240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74c2…5260backed Spurs47c1,086$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.383850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Trail Blazers56c1,045$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.136043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Spurs47c1,031$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.518643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Spurs47c1,030$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.913547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Spurs52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48028056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Spurs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50047651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Trail Blazers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008348.2%40 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Trail Blazers53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5308951.7%46 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Trail Blazers53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53035049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Trail Blazers49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7673…fa40backed Spurs49c989.18$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Spurs37c987.97$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.3361638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Trail Blazers51c980$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.3662051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Trail Blazers52c970.9$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0520744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Spurs50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48516050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.