NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc086540915ac31f1a4ed1b15342354144b2fdf368747e7b7e378795180a7e603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Spurs, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Spurs | 53c | 3,887$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.22 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Spurs | 55c | 3,203$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.13 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 2,738$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.44 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Spurs | 53c | 2,524$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.44 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Spurs | 55c | 1,579$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.34 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,536$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.94 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 241.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Spurs | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Spurs | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Spurs | 54c | 34.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 31.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Spurs | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d332backed Spurs | 55c | 18.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail BlazersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.