NBA · resolved market
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d9a3269d112d7267022b7e2192db0750429a78dcb05230d66503db6b0881874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 47c | 612.75$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…7b9ebacked Yes | 53c | 572.06$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.87 | 108 | 35.2%38 W · 70 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Yes | 53c | 430.75$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.37 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…ba51backed Yes | 52c | 371.19$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 279.81$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 48c | 249.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 188.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…b4dcbacked Yes | 53c | 181.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 48c | 112$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 52c | 94.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 40c | 67.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…398ebacked Yes | 52c | 66.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 60c | 65.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes | 52c | 56.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…352bbacked Yes | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 54.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…d4cebacked Yes | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 46c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02eb…917dbacked Yes | 54c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…67e4backed Yes | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes | 53c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail BlazersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.