NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0793861b3d53d6b0b73a87f870e33cfc8e6c414be40b3201269c3944ec5ea21d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $389,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes | 0c | 117,506$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 0c | 78,142$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 344 | 56.7%195 W · 149 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 0c | 35,722$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…4c3dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,308$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94f…25f6backed Yes | 0c | 29,114$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed Yes | 0c | 18,801$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d9…2becbacked Yes | 0c | 10,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664f…d100backed Yes | 0c | 9,492$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Yes | 0c | 8,338$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed No | 60c | 1,991$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.8 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 61c | 1,040$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.99 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…08d3backed Yes | 38c | 753.85$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c20…42a1backed Yes | 40c | 677.81$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.89 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 45c | 439.88$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…38b5backed Yes | 39c | 410.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Yes | 40c | 308.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4e…d00abacked Yes | 40c | 231.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Yes | 45c | 111.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed No | 55c | 106.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 43c | 86.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed Yes | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 40c | 61.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Yes | 60c | 48.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked No | 37c | 30.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail BlazersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.