TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,106,070

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,106,070 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c60,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e7…e4b3backed Yes1c36,627$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No76c23,103$17,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,555.7119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe631…4dc0backed Yes35c22,467$7,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,858.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb954…76a4backed Yes0c15,431$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No63c15,332$9,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,637.546756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes30c15,030$4,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,520.9314126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1845…43eabacked Yes1c13,119$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3a…bc07backed Yes2c12,874$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3307…25d9backed Yes9c12,713$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10e…0accbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6015…1b53backed No51c11,921$6,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,824.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bfe…ffdabacked No49c11,321$5,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,809.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No39c11,269$4,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,846.447436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2d…9ec8backed Yes1c10,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a5…365fbacked Yes2c9,990$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8844…ff13backed No61c8,189$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc0…5eefbacked Yes49c8,146$4,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,030.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cda…2de5backed No59c7,445$4,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb830…7ebabacked Yes40c6,509$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes62c6,462$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce85…00a2backed Yes51c6,417$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed No44c6,164$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,471.771947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb6…f6f7backed Yes31c5,884$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fd…c6bbbacked Yes44c5,517$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.23850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36f9…cec7backed Yes9c5,200$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb465…d538backed Yes2c5,122$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd79e…1899backed Yes0c5,082$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed No62c5,024$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.164100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No52c5,000$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.232356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…ee21backed Yes1c4,813$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked Yes39c4,711$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c43…2914backed No44c4,651$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84bd…c8d9backed Yes50c4,593$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed No66c4,269$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1619…27f0backed Yes47c4,257$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed No59c4,221$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked No63c4,045$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.01785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+167.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e69…ce41backed Yes1c3,856$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb737…cf13backed No78c3,795$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c62…f2e3backed No53c3,765$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No67c3,621$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.834231%13 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x025d…9dd4backed Yes6c3,608$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b34…dcf2backed Yes58c3,563$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x964d…daf2backed Yes53c3,506$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7186…fe16backed Yes2c3,481$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6b…c084backed Yes7c3,397$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce56…bdecbacked Yes1c3,390$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,068$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.251,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes2c3,050$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556f…18eebacked Yes38c3,048$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes55c3,015$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.99837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked Yes0c3,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2811…545dbacked Yes36c2,995$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…b97bbacked Yes61c2,984$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…62dcbacked Yes53c2,931$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes14c2,812$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.9911349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x3d80…c20abacked Yes51c2,807$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No64c2,800$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.342250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf97d…2f71backed Yes9c2,792$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445b…4a6fbacked Yes42c2,696$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4f…3d4dbacked Yes51c2,638$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No67c2,629$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.7510652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c8e…1483backed Yes58c2,598$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes34c2,592$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.062951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x089a…8486backed Yes1c2,561$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9112…8690backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No77c2,465$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c67…56d3backed No78c2,400$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No43c2,356$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…468dbacked Yes41c2,333$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes46c2,331$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.292035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No42c2,300$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.8526139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9028…3b37backed No67c2,285$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709d…5501backed No61c2,185$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Yes52c2,129$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed No64c2,119$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d9e…bbdebacked Yes52c2,113$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9148…784cbacked Yes8c2,110$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed Yes37c2,074$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.36825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df8…9b1cbacked Yes6c2,064$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5792…6481backed No49c2,037$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed No42c2,010$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3c…61e2backed Yes46c2,001$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1396…6a08backed Yes8c2,000$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fe…2b6dbacked Yes57c2,000$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306b…3afebacked Yes6c1,986$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe57a…e196backed No66c1,981$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fed…f6a5backed No47c1,963$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8159…ed58backed Yes48c1,953$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed No47c1,926$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+85.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36c3…a901backed No53c1,857$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No48c1,853$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.4819237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Yes29c1,846$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f6…ba49backed No50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d63…0687backed Yes14c1,800$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b5…89b6backed Yes1c1,795$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…69efbacked Yes47c1,767$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c1,764$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.881,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes38c1,763$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.531250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.