Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81113b09875d07267cd820a2213c4b6d0ece6c1f97b9dd40252ac2e998707420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $381,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,451 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b6c…64b4backed Yes | 2c | 75,852$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.19 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 26,472$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.77 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 13,158$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 3c | 11,597$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes | 5c | 10,008$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…4854backed Yes | 4c | 9,503$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,158$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,556$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e69…479fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8a…decbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,387$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 2c | 3,348$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…4fd2backed Yes | 2c | 3,256$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba6…3567backed Yes | 4c | 3,099$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,865$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…83c1backed Yes | 4c | 2,493$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…c03ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,395$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,331$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af8…a6a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,284$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,198$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ae…31bcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,073$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9924…c818backed Yes | 2c | 1,855$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…414abacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…f1a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…56e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…1b18backed Yes | 4c | 1,185$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…5744backed Yes | 1c | 1,154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 1,038$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…80cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…4174backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…ab0cbacked Yes | 3c | 987.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 2c | 919.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 918.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538d…e85ebacked Yes | 2c | 902.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…c5e7backed Yes | 4c | 875.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 869.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 817.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 4c | 779.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2678…88a4backed Yes | 4c | 745.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…a570backed Yes | 3c | 723.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…1c52backed Yes | 2c | 647.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 3c | 644.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1255backed Yes | 16c | 512.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…732abacked Yes | 4c | 508.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…20dabacked Yes | 3c | 505.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 5c | 491.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca24…a92abacked Yes | 7c | 432.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…bef1backed Yes | 6c | 431.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4134…f72dbacked Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e4…8685backed Yes | 4c | 357.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 6c | 317.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…5447backed Yes | 6c | 283.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Yes | 4c | 256.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…5dafbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3352…2e4bbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 73c | 39.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe74c…e2a6backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.