Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91babcfb1c65343a2cb4cab5702f5198ae2dd344f2bc80f088d6e7c769df53c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $448,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $448,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 0c | 53,079$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 1c | 35,501$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…9351backed Yes | 1c | 29,848$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…0c47backed Yes | 0c | 24,536$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…8518backed Yes | 0c | 21,167$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 9c | 8,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 12c | 6,618$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.04 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb60…a39fbacked Yes | 27c | 6,145$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 5c | 5,200$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.26 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Yes | 29c | 5,156$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 78c | 4,403$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 26c | 4,291$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.52 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 4,022$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.91 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…a77abacked No | 79c | 3,480$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…aa4bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,411$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…56e6backed Yes | 41c | 2,895$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 13c | 2,415$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.22 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…136abacked Yes | 9c | 2,174$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 25c | 2,003$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 5c | 1,692$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked No | 79c | 1,650$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…22e1backed Yes | 47c | 1,589$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,578$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 69c | 1,495$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.72 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…ae6ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,488$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 19c | 1,419$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.03 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 28c | 1,391$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccc…f2dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,362$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,350$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.81 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 34c | 1,325$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.61 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed Yes | 13c | 1,261$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 20c | 1,253$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,199$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 33c | 1,060$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.12 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…9c42backed Yes | 34c | 1,039$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…390fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,025$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 990$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 973.42$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.35 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 919.17$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 67c | 898.04$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.94 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 21c | 884.88$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 70c | 879.99$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 4c | 877.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 833.34$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 37c | 791.18$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 787.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…309ebacked Yes | 17c | 784.89$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…18b6backed Yes | 24c | 780.54$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 20c | 772.05$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…f660backed No | 65c | 727.89$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 58c | 721$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 28c | 660$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 23c | 645.28$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 74c | 633.43$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 17c | 588$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 14c | 585.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 69c | 562.85$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 69c | 548.41$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…69c5backed Yes | 30c | 540.7$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 66c | 522.97$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…b3fcbacked Yes | 33c | 519.78$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 18c | 515.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 10c | 500.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 53c | 497.04$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.74 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked No | 71c | 486.89$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 17c | 474.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…8012backed No | 77c | 465.82$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…4af1backed No | 76c | 434.83$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 74c | 434.42$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…cd8bbacked No | 72c | 414.81$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…5cbebacked No | 65c | 410.54$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…4dbebacked No | 65c | 410.17$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 14c | 409.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 16c | 408.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 32c | 403.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 23c | 403.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 32c | 394.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…f38bbacked Yes | 35c | 370.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed No | 65c | 354.43$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 353.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…80cebacked Yes | 28c | 349.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 47c | 348.1$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +192%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 68c | 328$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed Yes | 14c | 322.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 64c | 316.11$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…e18ebacked Yes | 26c | 313.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…046bbacked No | 64c | 310.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e69…479fbacked Yes | 13c | 307.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…8058backed No | 66c | 306.45$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…1c52backed Yes | 36c | 304.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…7fe8backed No | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…17afbacked Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Yes | 17c | 292.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 37c | 289.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…e4f7backed Yes | 42c | 274.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.