Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc59a17dd151cffbb9517e8a2c9b8c0ab16abe0632f79e77d1ad407481efa69a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $597,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $597,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 1c | 167,014$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.37 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…2804backed No | 0c | 58,884$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed No | 0c | 36,789$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…613bbacked No | 0c | 22,796$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3a26backed No | 1c | 16,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 0c | 14,933$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed No | 1c | 13,373$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…99a7backed No | 1c | 12,261$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…7b6cbacked No | 1c | 11,179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…37d7backed No | 0c | 10,728$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 2c | 9,294$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.42 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 2c | 6,742$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +192%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed No | 0c | 6,361$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 1c | 6,111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 6,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked No | 2c | 5,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…1a04backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…167ebacked No | 0c | 4,402$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…510bbacked No | 0c | 3,663$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…f454backed No | 1c | 3,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 1c | 3,339$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…d5fbbacked No | 0c | 2,537$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40bd…6b9abacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 2c | 2,207$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 1,662$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 5c | 1,656$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f17…88eabacked No | 1c | 1,589$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,431$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.03 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed No | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…cbf6backed No | 2c | 1,297$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 16c | 1,248$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 68c | 1,005$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…f31bbacked No | 3c | 964.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…fe33backed No | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 73c | 840.91$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.53 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 38c | 812.58$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.45 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 1c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 4c | 720.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 66c | 700$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed No | 11c | 615.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 60c | 549$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…903abacked No | 10c | 525.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 487.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked Yes | 75c | 470.17$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 34c | 449.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 395.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 6c | 332.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 77c | 307.18$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 59c | 293.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed No | 34c | 291.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…3099backed No | 19c | 266.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 60c | 230$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 30c | 209.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 196.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…e09bbacked No | 17c | 178.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 178$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 50c | 156.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 64c | 156.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked No | 10c | 150.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 17c | 148.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…58cdbacked No | 37c | 135.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…9351backed No | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 122.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…6ca0backed Yes | 79c | 121.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 120.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…4edfbacked No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 63c | 100.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…7fe8backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2c…2a5ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87e…5752backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…a158backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…a95abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc53…cb5ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…374ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f32…78cebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…b051backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…cd1abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…91d7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…1951backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…d14ebacked No | 26c | 96.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…6cc9backed No | 21c | 92.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 34c | 91.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd7…5774backed Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…ebf7backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…dfaebacked No | 25c | 80.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…db7fbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…4c2cbacked No | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 77.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.