Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa531012926163dcc72824cfcb3997d22828e9f65ceb2924c87d47f5218d53f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 4,088$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.63 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 27c | 3,538$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 3,498$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.42 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…c3adbacked No | 74c | 2,661$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed Yes | 27c | 2,490$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 13c | 2,085$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 2,061$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 27c | 1,771$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.1 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 20c | 1,091$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.05 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 28c | 1,025$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 14c | 670.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 73c | 554.21$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 525$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 439.79$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 73c | 425.61$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 73c | 405.33$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 19c | 394$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 10c | 380.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…8c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 377.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 3c | 376.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 73c | 364.01$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 13c | 353.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 26c | 304.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed No | 74c | 303.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 27c | 283.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed No | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 261$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 11c | 258.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes | 27c | 208.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c6…3c48backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…cc86backed Yes | 28c | 191.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 28c | 172.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 161.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 12c | 137.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 29c | 135.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 131$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 27c | 124.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 73c | 119.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 119.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 12c | 102.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…8a95backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 28c | 88.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 19c | 81.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 81.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 69.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 27c | 69.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 75c | 68.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 78c | 67.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…363abacked Yes | 27c | 60.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…32b5backed Yes | 28c | 54.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 26c | 49.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 28c | 45.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 74c | 40.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed No | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed No | 74c | 39.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed No | 79c | 33.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 33.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 33.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 74c | 27.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 72c | 24.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 75c | 22.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed No | 75c | 22.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 73c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.