Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cacac446aad0543c3a7aa8131b63d47559cee37befdeee6e4f20de9d3c2c031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd36…3f97backed Yes | 34c | 4,504$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 3,058$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.88 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b70…6ccebacked Yes | 26c | 1,838$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 1,515$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 1,070$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.12 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 880.62$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 857.52$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.96 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 640.98$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b71…4e79backed Yes | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed No | 67c | 353.17$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 80c | 319.12$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 75c | 299.87$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 298.67$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 290.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 26c | 225.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 73c | 224.46$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 208.58$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…cc86backed Yes | 20c | 190.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 18c | 189.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…77b5backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes | 27c | 166.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 74c | 161.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 37c | 155.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 153.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 26c | 128.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 26c | 119.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 109.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked No | 65c | 103.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc285…d26ebacked Yes | 26c | 95.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 95.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 92.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 92.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 73c | 88.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 87.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…726bbacked Yes | 26c | 86.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 69.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 67.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…c5fabacked Yes | 26c | 66.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 61.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed No | 76c | 59.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 20c | 50.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 34c | 48.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…6f29backed Yes | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed No | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…363abacked Yes | 27c | 43.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…8c0fbacked Yes | 37c | 42.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Yes | 27c | 40.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 38.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 75c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.