TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$274,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed No80c152,032$121,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,652.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Yes20c140,174$28,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,034.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc198…6d2cbacked Yes20c16,396$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,337.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46ee…ae61backed No79c13,197$10,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No78c11,284$8,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.9311761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed No80c6,178$4,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.545775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…1916backed Yes27c5,453$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec1f…d325backed Yes19c5,263$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d2…f5a7backed Yes21c4,757$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed Yes24c4,087$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.82560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked No79c3,613$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.123839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2b…5b9cbacked Yes18c3,250$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe853…75a8backed No76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No80c2,852$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.4211657.8%67 W · 49 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…edd5backed Yes19c2,535$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes24c2,119$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ba…9625backed Yes19c2,088$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked No79c1,889$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-56.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes21c1,781$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.544643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No67c1,758$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.6890553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1489…5cd8backed Yes22c1,532$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes21c1,176$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3ac4…16dabacked Yes19c1,158$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes20c1,100$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c90…4795backed Yes19c1,040$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b83…5452backed Yes19c1,020$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7912…c0f3backed Yes21c1,016$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x059c…04ebbacked Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes21c999.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.99450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+125.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52e1…3990backed Yes22c731.73$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f50…f651backed Yes21c701.86$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…9d06backed Yes23c615$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1d…90f0backed Yes21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No79c552.43$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.921747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a2…d941backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc1…00d9backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…5415backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6651…722cbacked Yes22c454.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x664f…d100backed Yes13c454.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bff…7cd6backed No79c447.01$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.342466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed Yes20c389.15$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+162.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…f159backed Yes19c380.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4384…fc99backed Yes19c373.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2cc…4c52backed Yes19c362.79$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3873…6cf9backed Yes19c359.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6c…d437backed Yes27c354.44$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9e…2e40backed Yes20c338.35$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.67333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…55b4backed Yes22c331.32$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No76c329.18$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3412541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5d…bc17backed Yes19c328.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e4…b252backed Yes13c303.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9887…8e6dbacked Yes20c300.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a80…9917backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Yes17c299.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5114144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Yes17c299.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c13…f824backed Yes21c285.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70eb…c949backed Yes19c264.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b9…9ce4backed Yes19c263.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-59.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15b3…da0bbacked Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe628…d459backed Yes19c258.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes20c258.17$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.741631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa12d…c4dabacked Yes21c239.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347e…4d06backed Yes21c238.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadf1…e525backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37dd…bcd9backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca7…ce1dbacked Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9c…387ebacked Yes20c236.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ed…2c38backed Yes20c230.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c5…4fbabacked Yes22c226.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5970…2e16backed Yes20c223.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No80c220.05$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0120249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes22c218$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…fd4fbacked Yes19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb259…8a59backed Yes8c204.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x114c…0015backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes21c197.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.231625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd811…13efbacked Yes20c189.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a7…2255backed Yes27c185.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd69a…e877backed Yes19c178.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…2ca7backed Yes19c167.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+169.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc908…15a1backed Yes22c162.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011837.3%44 W · 74 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc357…c550backed Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1c…e15cbacked Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…dd99backed Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3f…243abacked Yes19c154.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c4…19fbbacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa110…3053backed Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+69.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Yes19c140.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.673548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae0d…7df9backed Yes19c139.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1074…b136backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba9…c25fbacked Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd277…ab38backed Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No78c125$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.512038.3%46 W · 74 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.