UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c53a3a824dd94395b55884b12ed4d5dc268108f10ab47c4782c4401f7065f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Under | 30c | 3,709$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.43 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 70c | 2,696$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 32c | 857.61$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 28c | 530.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 906 | 53.6%486 W · 420 L | +46.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Over | 70c | 425.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75af…145fbacked Over | 70c | 343.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 67c | 296.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Under | 36c | 277.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Over | 64c | 271.85$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…9b1abacked Under | 46c | 212.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over | 54c | 207.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…8267backed Over | 72c | 166.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…a2bfbacked Over | 71c | 155.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…18a7backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 32c | 147.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…c3f6backed Over | 68c | 147.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…bcdebacked Over | 70c | 143.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…aeb8backed Over | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 31c | 108.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…0c6ebacked Over | 69c | 95.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…4501backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…e4eabacked Over | 67c | 74.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…da28backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70aa…293bbacked Under | 44c | 66.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…3090backed Over | 68c | 59.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…b51abacked Over | 71c | 57.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4963…e0a5backed Under | 33c | 53.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 29c | 50.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…c648backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Over | 67c | 47.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…3359backed Over | 67c | 44.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4a…ff2abacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…8181backed Under | 45c | 42.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…1a6bbacked Over | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d58…42fdbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…4b96backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f27…88e0backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…6c2cbacked Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…d389backed Over | 69c | 24.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…da18backed Over | 69c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…fe8abacked Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…31a4backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Sean Strickland won
- Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.