UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520b072b44113846445265420a169b1f27c190c9369522c2c7d54a0d63307745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 41c | 1,203$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.38 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 43c | 1,162$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.09 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Over | 55c | 968.11$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…c9afbacked Over | 59c | 850.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 40c | 794$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.89 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…f7ffbacked Over | 58c | 683.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 38c | 657.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 44c | 625.5$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.22 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…08d9backed Over | 55c | 453.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Over | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…e858backed Over | 59c | 255.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 44c | 237.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Under | 46c | 218.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844e…4efdbacked Over | 52c | 197.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Over | 58c | 193.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Under | 47c | 174.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Over | 53c | 174.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…e06abacked Over | 58c | 172.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…ceb0backed Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Over | 58c | 134.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Under | 48c | 131.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…85cabacked Under | 43c | 116.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…b1e7backed Over | 59c | 107.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 57c | 102.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…e91abacked Over | 59c | 99.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…d6e4backed Under | 49c | 95.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Over | 51c | 92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 49c | 92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 46c | 87.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…c0ccbacked Over | 59c | 85.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 54c | 83.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 42c | 82.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d83…8673backed Over | 62c | 80.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2f0fbacked Under | 48c | 79.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Over | 62c | 64.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 45c | 60.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…a524backed Over | 58c | 60.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…c648backed Over | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…9702backed Over | 59c | 56.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…2415backed Over | 58c | 55.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3786…439abacked Over | 58c | 51.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…a534backed Over | 59c | 51.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +247.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…e0b3backed Over | 59c | 50.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…dbfcbacked Over | 62c | 48.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847b…274cbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 41.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1a…66b4backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…5ba5backed Under | 46c | 39.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…16e6backed Under | 52c | 38.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 49c | 37.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Over | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…969abacked Under | 48c | 34.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…1a6bbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…914cbacked Over | 66c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…ba40backed Over | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 40c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…9b2dbacked Over | 60c | 26.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b6…4787backed Over | 62c | 24.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…133cbacked Over | 63c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aecbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Sean Strickland won
- Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.