TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4350…914c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$13.78
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33.81
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$145
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$91.43
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+42.9%+$24
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.22
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$32.77
Senators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Blues vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+104.1%+$41.63
Flames vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Stars vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Blue Jackets vs. Sharksbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+66.7%+$16.66
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.53
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$35.86
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.22
Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?backed Dems · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.66
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Jesse Jackson Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Will La Shawn Ford be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+300%+$299.99
Will Junaid Ahmed be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Steve Toth be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+178.6%+$169.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+389.4%+$253.08
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$28.01
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+132.6%+$14.3
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+60.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+108.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12.34
Alabama vs. Indianabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletics vs. New York Yankeesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$170.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+36.9%+$18.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$127
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.