TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will La Shawn Ford be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,204 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6291…cc47backed Yes24c2,536$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.3624433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes20c1,814$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.39450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+149.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No76c1,693$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.2134333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed No78c987.01$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes21c927.62$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.4127222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed No80c744$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed No80c681$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+127.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e63…399abacked Yes25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x518d…3b83backed No74c596.07$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd069…d068backed Yes38c524.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes32c505$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.824425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c494.16$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.4333421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x120b…ee03backed No74c485.01$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes23c459.79$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.8714356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No75c432.12$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7119631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes6c424.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,539.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4350…914cbacked Yes25c399.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed No80c389$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No77c333.87$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.52025%5 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No73c331.79$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.815232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes23c327.25$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.84953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes27c303.13$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.833432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de2…9e62backed Yes20c280.54$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+405.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c254.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2949511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes28c250.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.073357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c226.41$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes9c177.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5466914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes32c173.35$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.553961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa532…cc03backed Yes27c150$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.656100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+98.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No79c150$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.052429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes15c150$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.351520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7450…b5acbacked No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No69c142$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6812643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No79c126.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…dfc4backed Yes21c126$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+369.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41f…19d2backed Yes26c120$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+290.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…a1a0backed Yes21c120$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+371.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6be…5ef7backed Yes24c112$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+321.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No71c109.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.596845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc940…75f0backed Yes22c109$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick22cpaid+365.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…2803backed Yes24c102$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+318%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0a…c04fbacked Yes24c98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+222.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd96c…fc5abacked Yes21c95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+210.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfec…015abacked Yes24c94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+319.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c93.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.59010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x830b…7f63backed Yes22c93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+360.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes15c83.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6618310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde4f…2cffbacked Yes27c78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c67.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5612150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes23c64.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5216632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes29c62.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.414734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes17c61.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1416020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes27c60.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+92.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.454537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes30c56.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaed1…4d3bbacked No76c54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4abc…52cabacked Yes30c53.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.281553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No74c51.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.97534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+123.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+93.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…3f36backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c5…3071backed Yes25c49.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed No74c49.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.911540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad2d…0a11backed No79c49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x587a…87ebbacked No79c47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f5…45dbbacked No76c47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes25c45.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4812440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe424…b135backed No79c45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fa0…6e12backed No79c42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb039…6ed4backed No79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb79d…11ebbacked No79c39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c38.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b02…04aabacked No79c37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc173…6342backed No79c36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes29c35.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes29c34.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.664537.8%17 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5905…0720backed No80c34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c5…681ebacked No76c34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No76c33.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.471764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a3…d0f5backed No76c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2439…30febacked No79c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b06…8eb2backed No76c31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No76c30.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.172626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No76c30.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.172725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.517648.7%37 W · 39 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d30…ecf7backed No76c29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddaf…abbbbacked No79c29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…b1ddbacked No76c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18c1…0b5dbacked No76c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe52…bdb3backed No79c28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0212…98bdbacked No76c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18e7…0575backed No79c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa6…9a82backed No79c21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20eb…0321backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.