Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Melissa Conyears Ervin be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb9dc4a85e21f8947b850a5762c9ff7f4444b56a0f02dfdf9b8ebc603ee965e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 60c | 2,741$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.97 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 37c | 1,280$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.09 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 7c | 579.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 37c | 575.92$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 63c | 434.89$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 54c | 416.37$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 369.36$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.12 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 60c | 330.79$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Yes | 59c | 326.62$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 40c | 268.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 58c | 262.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 38c | 245.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 52c | 225.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…d6d4backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…5458backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d31…416ebacked No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…9d11backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…7629backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…8684backed No | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…efccbacked No | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…356fbacked No | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aba…4d6dbacked No | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…4299backed No | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…87e9backed No | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…e2d2backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…76a7backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…9946backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…5979backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…16d0backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…f01ebacked Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f4…66d0backed Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…4962backed Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…b371backed Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…d515backed Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2581…3e6abacked Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…f602backed Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d10…6b4dbacked Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 177.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 174.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 40c | 165.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f11…972abacked Yes | 61c | 159.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Yes | 65c | 154.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 41c | 150.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 126$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 65c | 121$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked Yes | 60c | 109.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 100.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 75c | 71.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 70c | 71.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f00…1b5cbacked No | 54c | 54.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 54.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 61c | 52.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…3f36backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed Yes | 68c | 47.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 62c | 43.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +134%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 40c | 36.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…9ec0backed Yes | 68c | 34.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…840cbacked Yes | 49c | 34.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…7e6cbacked Yes | 60c | 31.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7824…e5cdbacked Yes | 56c | 30.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 48c | 26.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…874ebacked Yes | 66c | 21.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melissa Conyears Ervin be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?this page
- Will Anabel Mendoza be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Anthony Driver Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Felix Tello be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Jason Friedman be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Jazmin Robinson be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Kina Collins be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will La Shawn Ford be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?Yes won
- Will Reed Showalter be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Richard Boykin be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Rory Hoskins be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
- Will Thomas Fisher be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.