NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53c3cb5924ead4720807c561b97f77f32f2a01f9557f37cdbed01d8a7479863f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 21,434$10,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,999.95 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 52c | 20,000$10,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,333.07 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 15,544$7,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,562.13 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Over | 51c | 12,200$6,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,978.1 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 5,652$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,165.16 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 58c | 5,200$3,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Under | 50c | 4,870$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 54c | 4,662$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.9 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 50c | 3,839$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.69 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Over | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 2,900$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.88 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 1,902$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.29 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 980.18$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.2 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 909.32$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.27 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 825.67$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.4 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Under | 56c | 714.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Under | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 50c | 362$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Under | 56c | 357.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 192.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…3934backed Under | 55c | 140.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 54c | 121.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…586abacked Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 57.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…f897backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…914cbacked Under | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Under | 54c | 31.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…6700backed Under | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.