NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69491ec2dbc6d158572211a106ec206e7b2a4a6da30022c6fe843e6b9ec0fdf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Packers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 64c | 8,569$5,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,115.23 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Bears | 61c | 6,930$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,729.82 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Bears | 64c | 5,474$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.63 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Packers | 40c | 2,762$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.69 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Packers | 37c | 2,509$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Packers | 43c | 1,881$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.04 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Bears | 65c | 1,647$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Bears | 65c | 1,541$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.77 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Packers | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Packers | 35c | 1,491$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.77 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Packers | 34c | 907.56$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bears | 63c | 800$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Packers | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Packers | 35c | 454.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Packers | 54c | 333.61$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 36c | 314.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Packers | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…dcefbacked Packers | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…87f3backed Packers | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…dfa4backed Packers | 14c | 219.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 36c | 201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Bears | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Packers | 37c | 155$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Bears | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Bears | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Bears | 64c | 104$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Bears | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Packers | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…d9bdbacked Packers | 35c | 80.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Bears | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Packers | 36c | 68.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Bears | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…5080backed Packers | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Packers | 46c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bears | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Packers | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Packers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bears | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Bears | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Bears | 61c | 34.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Packers | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Bears | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Packers | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Bears | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Packers | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.