NFL · resolved market
Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78cd24db14f3f5bafb4750ba3d6bb3fe5fe386758af54cb838dcc79dfed4f38a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 53c | 154$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 39.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5this page
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.