TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$280,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under50c150,741$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,0002528%7 W · 18 L-6.3wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-46.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c80,964$40,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,273.1675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c68,038$33,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,288.1112055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c40,332$20,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,001.3456852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c22,873$11,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,253.681,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over51c21,591$11,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,579.6154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Over50c20,137$10,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,011.0520755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over52c15,103$7,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,250.393148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under48c14,846$7,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,065.6524957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over51c9,989$5,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,854.624056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over52c8,505$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.5753253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Over50c6,046$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9931957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under52c5,787$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.34362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Over56c4,464$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.3812249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9603847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c3,855$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.0239447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over53c3,574$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.7877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20019240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.8913756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Over53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.798145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Under49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003650%18 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Over56c1,010$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.253852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48014151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over51c927.11$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.2965048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over53c849.06$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.067850%39 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41613959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over50c740$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37026649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Under54c668.51$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over50c508$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.482646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Over53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under48c489.58$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.417656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20820555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Under52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under48c349.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5486547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over52c337.12$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1213752.6%72 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Over47c320.19$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.714344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15610752.3%56 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over53c299.74$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.881181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+63.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.510353.4%55 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c233.64$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked Under50c201$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be6…436ebacked Under56c179.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x575b…14f0backed Over51c156.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.864946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7811056.4%62 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7811856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd747…ead8backed Under49c148.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60cd…3e7ebacked Over53c122.64$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.412458.1%72 W · 52 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.410864.8%70 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xad15…451bbacked Under49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under49c90.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1534247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under54c87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.981758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ec…8692backed Over52c85.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.813240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Over53c84.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.911283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+72.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x844d…3059backed Under49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Under54c78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.121952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae6b…4fa8backed Over52c74.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.981729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.410761.7%66 W · 41 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Over51c63.81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.13259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Over50c63.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under49c61.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2620944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.210464.4%67 W · 37 L+15.3wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.210565.7%69 W · 36 L+16.6wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under49c56.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.587164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Under52c52.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.473447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under51c47.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.993737.8%14 W · 23 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Under52c46.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Under53c44.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7723447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over54c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3113449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Over46c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Under55c32.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.612948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e4…85b4backed Under53c30.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ada…b8a0backed Under50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156850%34 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1614844.6%66 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e5…9fcabacked Over46c29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Over46c29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.66875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Over51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.216656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Over51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.216755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4970…21f6backed Under54c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.581258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed Over46c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over48c25.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1913560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33c4…0c84backed Under60c25.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Over46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2124…17e7backed Over56c24.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over43c23.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4732043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under47c22.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.582416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-58.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over46c22.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.891,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x234c…b85fbacked Under49c21.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.