NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Bears: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfeeb0f20f4f2692e4754c24fecd6e127a2e388d11bf8f6f91e7c3bed91690c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1656…6c04backed Packers | 54c | 7,590$4,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Bears | 46c | 7,539$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,467.93 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…e118backed Packers | 54c | 7,500$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 45c | 5,744$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.31 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Packers | 53c | 1,903$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.47 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears | 47c | 1,901$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.47 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Bears | 22c | 967.19$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bears | 46c | 705.01$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.48 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bears | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 46c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Packers | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Packers | 53c | 187.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Bears | 45c | 163$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Packers | 53c | 128$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bears | 49c | 115.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Bears | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Packers | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…b81fbacked Bears | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bears | 47c | 48.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Packers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Bears | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Packers | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Packers | 51c | 35.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Bears | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…60a9backed Bears | 33c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bears | 47c | 32.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebe…19d4backed Packers | 67c | 31.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Bears | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…1b68backed Packers | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Bears | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Bears | 48c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Bears | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…c282backed Bears | 49c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Packers | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.