NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25491bc182fe87613d15d8e1df4ba7212dc8d7d0745ed0331e331d1e62dca5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Packers | 55c | 6,364$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.6 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bears | 44c | 6,053$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,363.36 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Packers | 59c | 1,825$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 45c | 1,546$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.96 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Packers | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 41c | 491.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.93 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 43c | 370.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.25 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bears | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 58c | 272$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bears | 42c | 272$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Bears | 42c | 213.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Packers | 58c | 210.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Packers | 29c | 184.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Packers | 34c | 175.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 58c | 107.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Bears | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Bears | 42c | 82.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Bears | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked Packers | 59c | 61.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Packers | 54c | 48.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Packers | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Packers | 54c | 41.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…2464backed Bears | 46c | 41.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Bears | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bears | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…60a9backed Bears | 42c | 32.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Packers | 55c | 31.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Packers | 55c | 24.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.