TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,735 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b88…5d08backed Under59c4,207$2,500 inLost-$2,50018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over41c3,530$1,450 inWon+$2,079.7375852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over42c1,077$454 inWon+$622.7513756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Over43c679.28$289 inWon+$390.151957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under2c650$13 inLost-$137435.1%26 W · 48 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+57.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Under54c555.56$300 inLost-$30016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Under56c358.21$200 inLost-$20011748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Over50c350$175 inWon+$175.057533.3%25 W · 50 L-8.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Under34c275$95 inLost-$94.55850%29 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over42c253.51$107 inWon+$14710353.4%55 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed Under58c172.93$100 inLost-$10016243.8%71 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c2…3303backed Under60c167.5$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under48c137.86$66 inLost-$65.764235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over45c130$58 inWon+$71.883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…e452backed Under55c100$55 inLost-$553228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over44c73.4$32 inWon+$40.9734247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under50c50$25 inLost-$255040%20 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f38…4ddbbacked Under56c49.08$27 inLost-$27.33955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7732…8d82backed Under58c43.1$25 inLost-$251662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Under50c40$20 inLost-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…d0c8backed Under53c38.96$21 inLost-$20.655752.6%30 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafbc…7976backed Under57c34.87$20 inLost-$203743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under53c31.56$17 inLost-$16.713737.8%14 W · 23 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4fb3…05e5backed Over47c31.56$15 inWon+$16.718733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under50c25$13 inLost-$12.532043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over47c25$12 inWon+$13.292416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-58.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.