TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,556 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4215…f03abacked Over45c2,531$1,147 inWon+$1,384.583464.7%22 W · 12 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+103%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3798…27fabacked Under3c1,600$50 inLost-$502516%4 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+136.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under56c1,500$845 inLost-$84519439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Under4c1,000$38 inLost-$38549.3%5 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under4c1,000$35 inLost-$352711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Under3c800$25 inLost-$251811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f7…5bd7backed Under4c500$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Under9c400$36 inLost-$363013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under55c332$184 inLost-$183.716045%72 W · 88 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Under9c300$27 inLost-$274920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Under9c200$18 inLost-$184914.3%7 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0180…e452backed Under65c200$130 inLost-$1303228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Under69c144.93$100 inLost-$1005543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under21c103.22$22 inLost-$21.6811122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under56c95.83$54 inLost-$53.6627633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under56c94.46$53 inLost-$53.3356852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Under50c60$30 inLost-$30.15850%29 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over39c55.99$22 inWon+$34.163467.6%23 W · 11 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick44cpaid+60.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under58c39.1$23 inLost-$22.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under61c33.85$21 inLost-$20.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0b…0874backed Under66c30.3$20 inLost-$207150.7%36 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over52c30$16 inWon+$14.473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a8…642bbacked Under69c28.94$20 inLost-$19.89771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over36c28$10 inWon+$17.9230442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under72c25$18 inLost-$17.935648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over52c20$10 inWon+$9.613449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.