NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3648a19aba81661b800b23c27b11b7ce72a4e4a6ae1ec1d81d28b6ba37b75e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 61c | 3,144$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.82 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 39c | 3,024$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.1 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 40c | 356.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 43c | 285.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 38c | 249.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 57c | 223.54$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 62c | 214.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Over | 58c | 171.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 57c | 142$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 126.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Over | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…3be4backed Over | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Over | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Over | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 42c | 67.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1841…c63dbacked Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 51.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 40c | 48.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 61c | 46.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Under | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Under | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 42c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Under | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Under | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Under | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 60c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…c4edbacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f3…d80abacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.