NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f7644561a7d71ec6f57ad036ac7121a9f4ad89dc5b2339042500f2d7948cb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x635c…45c6backed Under | 63c | 15,916$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 9,015$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,635.06 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 38c | 2,033$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.62 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Over | 44c | 1,655$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked Over | 43c | 1,173$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 62c | 1,058$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.31 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 839.23$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.19 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9f…b918backed Over | 50c | 799.81$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 760.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.68 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 37c | 700$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfebf…0679backed Over | 44c | 675$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 53c | 662.26$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 563.45$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.46 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 5c | 475$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 36c | 423$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.72 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 60c | 419.53$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 39c | 377.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.5 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 35c | 336$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 262.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…586abacked Under | 55c | 241.79$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 214.3$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 64c | 156.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…9f00backed Over | 36c | 148$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 37c | 148$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 63c | 137$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 35c | 131$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 38c | 127.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 42c | 115.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Under | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 64c | 92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 35c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 44c | 72.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 34c | 69.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 21c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…2a5cbacked Over | 40c | 59.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 42c | 59.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 36c | 50.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 41c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 62c | 47.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 46.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 42c | 42.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…b87fbacked Under | 66c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Over | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Under | 59c | 34.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 57c | 19.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.