TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Packers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Packers, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb889…a430backed Packers48c60,000$28,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,799.993850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Packers49c26,862$13,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,162.592025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bears52c25,018$13,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,008.5322450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Bears52c24,500$12,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,76020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bears51c21,411$10,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,491.4412055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bears51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears51c19,600$10,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,507.9924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Packers49c13,500$6,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,61535848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Bears54c7,407$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,407.415658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Bears51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9405352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Packers49c6,000$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,91015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bears52c5,267$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.321,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Bears51c4,110$2,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.82850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Packers49c4,000$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears51c3,894$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.8254451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Packers47c3,056$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.326645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Packers48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20026649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Bears52c2,478$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.664641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bears30c2,297$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.2250242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked Bears52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Packers47c1,700$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79931450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Packers46c1,501$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.632955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Packers49c1,438$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.6277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ee…78cfbacked Packers47c1,294$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6081154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Bears54c1,233$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.339651%49 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Bears52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears28c984$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.7731543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Packers47c980.4$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.792552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Bears34c882.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.619651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Bears13c746.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.433641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Bears52c605.79$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.787361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Packers47c599$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.5336246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Bears53c488.08$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.46246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Bears38c473.3$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.74944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Bears53c471$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.372646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Packers48c410.64$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3965048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed Bears52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+161.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Packers19c248$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Bears9c216$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.620757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Packers49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012031.7%38 W · 82 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Packers18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Packers49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983040%12 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Packers47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Bears8c200$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18419124.6%47 W · 144 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bears51c181.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4236341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Packers16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Packers77c137.4$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4732043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Bears56c123.86$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.715145.1%23 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Bears53c121$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Bears32c111$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7521151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3854…586abacked Bears38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.261533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Bears51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4917459.2%103 W · 71 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Packers19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194914.3%7 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab52…5487backed Bears52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.154461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30ad…6a69backed Bears53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.344944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a7…a8fabacked Packers48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+412.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bears56c71.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.112748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…85fabacked Bears53c71.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Bears53c66.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.319954.8%109 W · 90 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7f…0a55backed Bears35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Packers20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Packers49c46.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.643447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Packers48c44.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3216349.7%81 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bears26c43.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.494639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Bears36c42.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.172416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-58.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Packers49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Packers49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bears34c40.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.836238.7%24 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Bears52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Bears53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.745846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…1db1backed Bears53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5c…1f57backed Packers47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Bears53c31.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1974…bc18backed Bears34c31.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+99%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78f8…3fa1backed Packers49c29.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+37.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a94…31e6backed Packers47c27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbd2…e8e8backed Bears39c26.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+79.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2eb…68d2backed Packers49c22.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1150%0 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a7c…1214backed Packers47c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf43…90e0backed Bears51c20.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Bears52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.69251.1%47 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac6…8bedbacked Bears54c19.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+115.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.