NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83f6956d7719fb29db29e65d8b81e1af84d41d04965612b97211c2b8e558918f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35f…99c3backed Bears | 37c | 4,509$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…98b0backed Packers | 63c | 4,294$2,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…0670backed Bears | 37c | 4,064$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13f…3b85backed Packers | 63c | 3,951$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Packers | 66c | 2,384$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.07 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…5184backed Bears | 37c | 2,243$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…9abebacked Packers | 63c | 2,241$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…5cbdbacked Packers | 63c | 2,209$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…5c2bbacked Bears | 37c | 2,161$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bears | 4c | 1,975$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…122fbacked Bears | 37c | 1,958$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8754…46abbacked Packers | 63c | 1,952$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…25debacked Packers | 63c | 1,942$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812d…9786backed Bears | 37c | 1,884$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bears | 34c | 1,750$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.17 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…86e3backed Packers | 63c | 1,582$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…19f1backed Bears | 37c | 1,576$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…aef4backed Packers | 63c | 1,546$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f94…0be7backed Bears | 37c | 1,488$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…52bfbacked Bears | 36c | 1,390$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Packers | 68c | 1,200$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Bears | 33c | 854.63$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…1c79backed Packers | 67c | 803.07$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Bears | 32c | 528$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Packers | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bears | 11c | 495$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.55 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…fa74backed Packers | 63c | 448.72$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…87f3backed Bears | 26c | 350$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ee…48febacked Bears | 37c | 332.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Packers | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…0f18backed Packers | 63c | 279.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…c8a2backed Bears | 37c | 224.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 66c | 144$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Packers | 66c | 142$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bears | 33c | 135.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bears | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Packers | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…314ebacked Bears | 36c | 83.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Packers | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Packers | 64c | 64.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Packers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Bears | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Bears | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Packers | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Bears | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Bears | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Packers | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Packers | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Packers | 78c | 15.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Packers | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.