NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5133d3848217cf6b35b3a1af29a006ff136823afe10480fbf0d336bc1bbf47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Packers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b8c…1556backed Bears | 62c | 15,950$9,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,061.02 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Packers | 39c | 11,639$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,539.22 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Packers | 11c | 3,000$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Packers | 38c | 2,829$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Packers | 9c | 2,800$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Bears | 61c | 2,557$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.38 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Packers | 39c | 2,521$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.22 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 61c | 2,241$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.86 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Packers | 9c | 1,915$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Packers | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Packers | 38c | 1,814$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.32 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Packers | 38c | 1,640$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Packers | 9c | 1,350$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Packers | 8c | 1,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Packers | 13c | 1,100$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Bears | 62c | 950$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Bears | 62c | 900$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.12 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Packers | 8c | 799.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Packers | 38c | 797.56$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.07 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Packers | 40c | 704.91$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Packers | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…69fdbacked Bears | 58c | 453.43$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Bears | 15c | 425.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.28 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Bears | 56c | 399.43$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Bears | 61c | 341.94$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Packers | 38c | 339.35$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Packers | 45c | 334.94$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Bears | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bears | 48c | 308$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Packers | 40c | 270$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Packers | 52c | 255.59$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 60c | 211.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Packers | 40c | 183$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers | 37c | 175$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Bears | 63c | 175$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Packers | 40c | 168.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…a311backed Bears | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Packers | 25c | 136$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Packers | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Packers | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…87f3backed Packers | 38c | 110.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cce…91f7backed Bears | 61c | 97.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bears | 27c | 95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…4568backed Bears | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Packers | 38c | 53.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Packers | 38c | 52.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Bears | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 138 | 66.7%92 W · 46 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Bears | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bears | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Packers | 40c | 45.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Packers | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Packers | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Packers | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Bears | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…df3abacked Bears | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Packers | 67c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Packers | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Packers | 74c | 18.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.