NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e93b3c5153158e5b68be8bab87c3f760fa48a129a8132a2d202baf80d50bd33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Bears, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Bears | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Packers | 67c | 2,952$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.05 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Packers | 70c | 716.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.35 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…270dbacked Bears | 34c | 372.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…7b26backed Bears | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Packers | 70c | 266.67$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…66dcbacked Bears | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Bears | 31c | 161.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Packers | 70c | 147$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Packers | 65c | 113.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Bears | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Packers | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Packers | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…a87fbacked Bears | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Packers | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Packers | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Bears | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Bears | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Bears | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers | 65c | 33.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Packers | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Packers | 67c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Packers | 72c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Over won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.