TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Packers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Packers, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,364,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,391,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,364,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Packers52c864,577$446,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446,090.632025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bears48c449,860$214,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235,736.612055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bears49c308,969$151,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,574.3516955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Packers51c164,447$83,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,367.938747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bears50c96,574$48,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,287.2122450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Packers50c60,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0003850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Packers52c55,519$28,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,7495648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bears48c55,422$26,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,690.651,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Packers51c50,907$25,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,962.4516860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7caf…058bbacked Bears49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4002100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Packers50c37,955$19,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,037.0416545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bears49c30,930$15,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,648.3427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bears47c24,000$11,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,72024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bears50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Bears49c15,306$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,806.1218650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Bears50c13,634$6,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,81719651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears49c13,484$6,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,876.6714252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers50c12,402$6,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,200.9883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bears49c12,349$6,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,297.9956852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Packers51c11,111$5,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,666.614440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears49c9,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,589.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Packers50c8,426$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.512955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Packers52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Bears50c6,300$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15016737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Bears49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.455650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Packers52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1201330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bears49c5,714$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.295149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed Bears49c4,316$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Packers51c4,314$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2002850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Packers50c3,748$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.152334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x073f…ec6dbacked Packers51c3,288$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde1…c3a4backed Packers52c3,282$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Bears50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears49c2,998$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.9424056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bears48c2,672$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.7365048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Packers51c2,284$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.3877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Bears50c2,276$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1381225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3af4…ed6bbacked Bears49c2,276$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.51650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafdc…c2a2backed Bears49c2,014$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.291450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Packers51c1,981$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.312828.6%8 W · 20 L-7.0wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-48%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd8ae…aa53backed Packers51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Packers50c1,896$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.016764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e44…686abacked Packers51c1,662$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Packers51c1,547$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7891442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bears47c1,438$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.2928447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bears49c1,368$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.6826649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Packers51c1,020$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.26233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Packers51c912$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.129447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae90…f6c8backed Bears49c900$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4592040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Bears50c799$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.55736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Bears53c747.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.676755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Bears49c612$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.1215746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Bears50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3005939%23 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf068…6184backed Packers53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears50c512.31$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Packers51c511.76$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee7e…b1e0backed Packers47c499.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.993145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked Bears49c428.35$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.463650%18 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Bears50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20011748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e7…9a03backed Bears50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff0…91fcbacked Packers51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Packers51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015352.3%80 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Packers51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Packers52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Packers46c332.74$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0620646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Packers51c330$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.314949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ead…7acebacked Bears50c309.14$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.57450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Bears50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bears49c290.03$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6436341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Bears49c284.37$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.823246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Packers52c269.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Packers51c254.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Bears48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13020650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe665…79bbbacked Bears48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.335044%22 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cf…469fbacked Bears49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e36…1195backed Bears49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Packers52c203.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e38…bdb3backed Bears50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Packers52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043040%12 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d52…47c5backed Packers52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe105…1efbbacked Bears48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Bears50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002962.1%18 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Packers51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Packers52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.455345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Bears15c194.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6814158.9%83 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Packers52c182.22$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed Bears48c156.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2516243.8%71 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9827…6c61backed Bears50c153.66$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.832343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Packers51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Bears50c134.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.493548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe615…6819backed Bears49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4513149.6%65 W · 66 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Bears49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.96656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Bears49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.26755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Packers52c119.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.142846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Packers51c116$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.165749.1%28 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e5…9d71backed Packers53c115.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.291070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…2f3dbacked Bears50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Bears50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f3…f6b1backed Bears50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.