NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa11e93c433c5a014a78da2d705f37997bc6b39f680ce2e06548ff47c0d99dfa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 1,834$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.53 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,763$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.94 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 1,532$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 1,237$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.25 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 5c | 582.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.5 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 59c | 520.93$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.17 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 59c | 500.37$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.56 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 42c | 479$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.82 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 41c | 444$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 393.58$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 49c | 276.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 35c | 238.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Under | 59c | 160.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 41c | 110.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…1f67backed Under | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 29c | 109.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 60c | 90.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…64e3backed Under | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 42c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…914cbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 42c | 57.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 58c | 49.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 42c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 58c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Under | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 70c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. UtahUtah won
- Senators vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.