NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9f0d1291b52655161830f16c9827afea85a9f02a14b1a73823075428769d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 49c | 6,165$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.65 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,364$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.06 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 5,076$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.49 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 4,744$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…c0bebacked Over | 48c | 900$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 638.35$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.64 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 19c | 590.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 552.49$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.93 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 52c | 492.78$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.53 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 54c | 425.79$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 47c | 354.6$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 53c | 302$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 40c | 289.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.68 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 62c | 227.13$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 53c | 124.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 88.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Under | 54c | 75.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 66c | 75.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 48c | 73.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 35c | 70.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 68.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 56.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 50c | 43.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 44c | 37.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 52c | 28.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Over | 49c | 27.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 48c | 21.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Utah: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. UtahUtah won
- Senators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.