Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0837382f86eb1e83dd3eb205de5ee99d9a2808934f79814a57653e39bf1c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 433 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 52c | 20,939$10,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,934.78 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 56c | 14,150$7,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,968.39 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 51c | 10,412$5,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed No | 52c | 8,956$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,309.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 41c | 6,000$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,539.99 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 48c | 4,191$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.83 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 37c | 4,109$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.78 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 43c | 3,608$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.98 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 52c | 3,472$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.24 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 47c | 2,967$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.74 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…033bbacked Yes | 56c | 2,381$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 58c | 2,310$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,219$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.21 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 51c | 2,206$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.97 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 40c | 2,186$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,002$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 42c | 1,736$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.3 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 56c | 1,702$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 13c | 1,637$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…8b87backed Yes | 68c | 1,480$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 1,465$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.75 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 1,455$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.02 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 55c | 1,444$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.86 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 56c | 1,375$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 45c | 1,371$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,294$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…4b86backed No | 33c | 1,227$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 1,221$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.95 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,100$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…e4a8backed Yes | 43c | 1,100$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,089$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.09 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 57c | 1,074$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.69 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 61c | 905.76$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.94 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 45c | 900$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…3b83backed Yes | 64c | 800$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 30c | 799.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 799.76$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.29 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 59c | 744.37$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.27 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…d609backed Yes | 52c | 743.05$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 60c | 705.83$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…34c0backed Yes | 55c | 696.61$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 659.79$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.51 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 56c | 649.29$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.09 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 51c | 613$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 37c | 600$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 585.09$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.06 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 56c | 554.29$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…a6bbbacked Yes | 61c | 535.94$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 528$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 50c | 513.32$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.66 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 54c | 439.53$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.45 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 56c | 437.07$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 59c | 426$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 38c | 411$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 47c | 400$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…91d7backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…5724backed No | 38c | 393$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…fee7backed Yes | 57c | 350.1$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…f025backed Yes | 28c | 341.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 47c | 333$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 50c | 326.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 39c | 312.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.54 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 35c | 310.37$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 42c | 299.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 60c | 299.96$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…fe0ebacked Yes | 67c | 283.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…7d41backed Yes | 62c | 265$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 43c | 251.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Yes | 21c | 249.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 45c | 248.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 57c | 246.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 232.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 62c | 230$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 55c | 228.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…c662backed Yes | 44c | 228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…626fbacked Yes | 44c | 228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…61ddbacked Yes | 44c | 228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…2ef9backed Yes | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…731abacked Yes | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…77a4backed Yes | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…efa2backed Yes | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…c4c6backed Yes | 44c | 226$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…0da6backed Yes | 44c | 226$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…f773backed Yes | 44c | 226$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…36d5backed Yes | 44c | 226$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 55c | 224.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…4033backed No | 36c | 224$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 37c | 222$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…0566backed No | 36c | 219$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…053ebacked No | 36c | 215$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…bfcdbacked Yes | 46c | 213.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…e659backed Yes | 55c | 210.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…9943backed No | 42c | 208.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb398…8e5fbacked No | 36c | 206$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 54c | 204.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?this page
- Will Bryan Maxwell be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?No won
- Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Yes won
- Will Robin Kelly be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?No won
- Will Stanley Leavell be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.