TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5462…eed6backed Yes51c16,750$8,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,154.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes79c11,667$9,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.62420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes41c9,251$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,434.9524433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes38c7,823$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.921233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes42c6,042$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,504.711522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No56c5,393$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.194245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes39c4,780$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900.4310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes49c4,515$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.496030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes46c3,732$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.923043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes36c3,317$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.0219643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No50c3,296$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.5712440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes41c3,000$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.233066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7705545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No55c2,790$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.361833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No49c2,693$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.993026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes45c2,650$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.32133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+68.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No56c2,500$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.971546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes36c2,490$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.4934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes36c2,379$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.24953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No50c1,995$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.6715232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…8b87backed Yes44c1,828$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e60…ae42backed Yes56c1,787$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.53333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…44a9backed Yes54c1,597$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes48c1,546$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.823357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No53c1,487$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.5121161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No61c1,419$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.521764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No2c1,306$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes39c1,162$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No9c1,110$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes39c1,101$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.0322948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No15c1,090$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.572020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes51c1,060$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.42638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c995.13$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.4821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c947.7$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55533238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x120b…ee03backed Yes34c917.45$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No60c840.43$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.573857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed No46c808$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6850%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe624…e63bbacked Yes44c795.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked No46c789$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No62c750$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No62c750$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes38c698.94$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.0914356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes45c673.91$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda2c…2a5ebacked No57c669$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No54c634.51$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cbe…75a1backed No46c617.54$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd49…7fe8backed No57c578.95$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…7d31backed Yes43c568.99$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.62520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No58c552.98$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.241947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No32c538.17$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.974734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8965…9830backed No67c498.57$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes37c482.2$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.22030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491c…7a96backed No64c460.66$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Yes65c454.99$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.691080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+81.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5421…449cbacked Yes45c448.4$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.695100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes49c432.28$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.233336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe49e…dc8bbacked Yes45c428.55$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No58c420.5$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.486845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No55c420$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.192138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4595…df87backed No59c400$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe17…b4bdbacked No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No45c400$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1789326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked No45c400$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa017…b7e6backed No46c400$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes34c364$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.242733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No69c359.1$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.783070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c13…7b4bbacked Yes56c358.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.63850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4abc…52cabacked Yes39c357.06$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198b…cd1abacked No59c349.95$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No58c344.74$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20133421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No67c326.9$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac03…3840backed No61c325.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes38c319.95$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8216632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2177…3fb4backed Yes37c318.26$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.873154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes39c317.47$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes40c306.61$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.845747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No42c289.06$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes64c285.65$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.542669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4edc…274fbacked No69c266.62$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes38c263.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.951546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes36c260.86$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.199646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No70c251.85$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.693154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes44c250$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1412445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes36c243$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5718041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed No45c235$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.141030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No65c229.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No52c222$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.442630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf749…7736backed No47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d4…8981backed No47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3261…8ee6backed No47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b78…fe92backed No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…96b2backed No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c21…83eebacked No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0d…c0babacked No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc3…0866backed No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x565b…bbd3backed No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06fe…2736backed No47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc3…80f6backed No47c211$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes36c202.34$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.675018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f91…2df0backed No47c202$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.